Friday, May 3

Earthquake prediction: pets and animal behavior

There are many accounts of unusual phenomena prior to an earthquake, especially reports of anomalous animal behavior. One of the earliest is from the Roman writer Claudius Aelianus concerning the destruction of the Greek city of Helike by earthquake and tsunami in 373 BC:

For five days before Helike disappeared, all the mice and martens and snakes and centipedes and beetles and every other creature of that kind in the city left in a body by the road that leads to Keryneia. ... But after these creatures had departed, an earthquake occurred in the night; the city subsided; an immense wave flooded and Helike disappeared....

Aelianus wrote this in the Second Century, some 500 years after the event, so his somewhat fantastical account is necessarily about the myth that developed, not an eyewitness account.

Scientific observation of such phenomena is limited because of the difficulty of performing an experiment, let alone repeating one. Yet there was a fortuitous case in 1992: some biologists just happened to be studying the behavior of an ant colony when the Landers earthquake struck just 100 km (60 mi) away. Despite severe ground shaking, the ants seemed oblivious to the quake itself, as well as to any precursors.

In an earlier study, researchers monitored rodent colonies at two seismically active locations in California. In the course of the study there were several moderate quakes, and there was anomalous behavior. However, the latter was coincident with other factors; no connection with an earthquake could be shown.

Given these results one might wonder about the many reports of precursory anomalous animal behavior following major earthquakes. Such reports are often given wide exposure by the major media, and almost universally cast in the form of animalspredicting the subsequent earthquake, often with the suggestion of some "sixth sense" or other unknown power.[51] However, it is extremely important to note the time element: how much warning? For earthquakes radiate multiple kinds of seismic waves. The "p" (primary) waves travel through the earth's crust about twice as fast as the "s" (secondary) waves, so they arrive first. The greater the distance, the greater the delay between them. For an earthquake strong enough to be felt over several hundred kilometers (approximately M > 5) this can amount to some tens of seconds difference. The P waves are also weaker, and often unnoticed by people. Thus the signs of alarm reported in the animals at the National Zoo in Washington, D.C., some five to ten seconds prior to the shaking from the M 5.8 2011 Virginia earthquake, was undoubtably prompted by the p-waves. This was not so much a prediction as a warning of shaking from an earthquake that has already happened.

As to reports of longer-term anticipations, these are rarely amenable to any kind of study. There was an intriguing story in the 1980s that spikes in lost pet advertisements in the San Jose Mercury News portended an increased chance of an earthquake within 70 miles of downtown San Jose. This was a very testable hypothesis, being based on quantifiable, objective, publicly available data, and it was tested by Schaal (1988) – who found no correlation. Another study looked at reports of anomalous animal behavior reported to a hotline prior to an earthquake, but found no significant increase that could be correlated with a subsequent earthquake.

After reviewing the scientific literature the ICEF concluded in 2011 that there is no credible scientific evidence that animals display behaviors indicative of earthquake-related environmental disturbances that are unobservable by the physical and chemical sensor systems available to earthquake scientists


AMPHIBIANS group of British scientists conducted on the Italian Lake San Rufino observing frogs, spawning. Researchers have identified the influence of lunar cycle on the reproduction of these animals. One day, all male toads left the breeding site. Lead researcher Rachel Grant noted that it is completely unlike the usual behavior of frogs - came to the place of breeding, the males never leave it until the end of spawning. All became clear when after five devastating earthquake hit the city of L'Aquila, which is located 74 km from San Rufino. "Our study is one of the first, which managed to capture the behavior of animals before, during and after the earthquake. Our data suggest that toads are able to capture the early signs of seismic activity, such as emissions of radioactive gases and charged particles, so that they can escape the consequences of disaster, "- said Grant in March 2010. Scientists have no idea how frogs could feel the changes in the environment. A few days after the last weak shocks males returned to spawn. In China in 1975 due to the behavior of live seismographs could save tens of thousands of people. A few months earlier, in Liaoning Province, where there was always increased seismic activity was carried out large-scale experiment: 100 thousand volunteers were called to convince the population of the province to immediately notify authorities of any unusual behavior of animals. Was also developed an evacuation plan and set up operational headquarters. At some point, the staff began to receive reports from the field that the snake woke up from hibernation, crawling on the snow and froze to death. Guided by these reports, staff members decided on emergency evacuation of earthquake-prone areas. February 4th, 1975 at 19.30 local time, a terrible earthquake in Liaoning, 90 percent of the destroyed houses. At the same time died only a few people who had not managed to go to a safe place. It is known that good seismographs are crocodiles. 
Tsuneyuki Yamamoto, chief superintendent crocodile nursery in Higasiidzu, captures all the changes in the behavior of their charges. According to him, crocodiles do not miss a single serious natural anomalies. For example, five hours before on the island of Honshu, a powerful earthquake, many alligators began to make sounds that resemble snarl, lifting up their heads and tails. A similar pattern was observed the day before the eruption of Mihara, who had remained silent 200 years. Conclusions Japanese zoologist: Range crocodile foreboding - 150 kilometers, different species have different abilities. American alligators catch approximation even minor tremors, but if "zarychit" Asian crocodile, the massive earthquake almost inevitable. 
The special sensitivity of FISH shark was spotted in 2001, when because of an approaching hurricane to the coast of Florida, "Gabriel," many species of sharks have left the shallow water and headed into the deeper areas. Sensitive "seismic" scent possesses a small fish - Nile elephant. In the northern mountains of the Pamirs Aquarium scientists have found that its occupant had predicted in advance earthquake. Nile elephant feels the approach of a natural disaster in four days. In Japan's coastal waters in March-April 2010, has sharply increased population of rare giant fish, called "belt-fish" (Regalecus glesne Ascanius). They were much more likely to get into the network of fishermen, and even more often - dozens of species - emits waves on the shore. Normally, these fish are found at depths greater than 1,000 meters and rarely rise to the surface. The first copies were seen by fishermen immediately after the February earthquake in Chile and April - in southern Taiwan. In accordance with the legends of the Ainu, the fish rise to the surface and are ejected to the shore, warning of an earthquake.


 OTHER ANIMALS. A few days before the eruption of Mayon volcano in the Philippines, numerous herds of wild boars and monkeys descended from the mountains and took the peasants' fields, trampled them completely, but in doing so advance warning residents of impending trouble. Residents now devastated village Belalou on Indonesian island of Sumatra say that the night before the tragedy, from the mountains down three dozen elephants lined up. They did not touch any buildings, nor the crops, just stood on the edge of the village and watched the doomed human settlement. After standing so that the elephant had disappeared in the jungle. The villagers are convinced that elephants have warned them of an impending earthquake. Previously, these animals wander into the territory of a person only one at a time.

Dogs and cats are one of the most tragic volcanic disasters in human history - the death of Saint-Pierre on the island of Martinique in 1902. A cloud of hot gases from the crater of Mont Pelee, completely burned the city. As a matter of minutes killed more than thirty thousand people odnako of animals after the tragedy, rescuers found only a few dead cats and dogs. As it turned out, almost all pets away from the city in advance, anticipating the impending catastrophe. In Chile, before the earthquake in 1835, every one of the dogs left the city Talkuano. Before the earthquake in 1976 in the Italian province of Friuli cats began to feverishly make kittens from their homes. 12 hours before the earthquake in Morocco in 1980, dogs and cats have run out of homes into the streets, camels, too hurried to leave the settlements. September 27th, 2003 at 18:33 in the Altai Mountains, Russia, was a powerful earthquake measuring 7.3 magnitude, aftershocks of which were felt even in Novosibirsk. Victims managed to escape, because the earthquake was "predicted" animals for a few hours before the event - first dogs, then horses. 

Men in Black: The prediction of earthquakes is impossible!!
Programmer: Maybe.

References

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You can write whatever you want, but technically, the precise mathematical-statistical forecast of earthquakes based on information about the behavior of wild and domestic animals, birds, fish, and individuals available from 1995, with the advent of social networking.

THE STRUCTURE OF INPUT BIG DATA: API applications to social networks

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